[US] Tariff Pass-Through Confirmed: Core PCE Goods Hit 2.8% as Q1 Deflator Surges to 4.3% Annualized

Macro Soup Newsroom May 1, 2026 3 min read

US core PCE goods prices rose 2.8% YoY in March as the Q1 core PCE deflator surged to 4.3% annualized, nearly double Q4's 2.7%, confirming tariff pass-through and forcing rate markets to reprice 2026 easing expectations.

Line charts showing headline PCE inflation at 3.5% and core PCE inflation at 3.2% for the 12 months ended March 2026, the highest levels since May 2023 and November 2023, respectively. Source Source Source

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[US] Tariff Pass-Through Confirmed: Core PCE Goods Hit 2.8% as Q1 Deflator Surges to 4.3% Annualized

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