UK CPI rose to 3.5% in September against a 3.4% forecast, led by 29.8% motor fuel inflation, and factory-gate prices are up 4.6%. Markets see a Bank of England hike on 5 November as near certain, even as payrolls, vacancies and pay growth soften.
One Chart UK’s ONS series puts September CPI at an 11-month high, with motor fuels doing the heavy lifting as petrol hit its dearest since 2022. Source
UK consumer price inflation rose to 3.5% in September (forecast 3.4%, previous 3.1%), the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported. That is the highest reading since October 2025. On the month, prices were up +0.4% (forecast +0.3%), and motor fuels did most of the work. Petrol rose 8.2p to 169.5p a litre, diesel rose 10.7p to 192.5p, and motor fuel inflation jumped to 29.8% from 23.0%. Core CPI came in at 2.8% (forecast 2.8%, previous 2.6%). Services CPI rose to 3.7% (forecast 3.6%, previous 3.4%), per FinancialJuice.
