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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The services sector is telling the Fed exactly what it doesn't want to hear

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The services sector is telling the Fed exactly what it doesn't want to hear

ISM Services PMI held at 53.6 in April but New Orders collapsed to 53.5, missing the 57.3 forecast by nearly four points. With Prices Paid still at 70.7, the Fed is caught between sticky services inflation and cracking demand.

Line chart from Kalshi showing declining odds of a Fed rate cut before 2927, from about 98% in February to 42% in May.
Kalshi odds of a Fed rate cut before 2927, as referenced on May 4, 2026.

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