Skip to Navigation Skip to Posts Skip to Content
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Fed is debating a hike into a labor market that's already cracking

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Fed is debating a hike into a labor market that's already cracking

Private-sector payrolls rose just 38,000 in August, the slowest since January per ADP, as the Fed weighs a rate hike at its September meeting despite a negative July jobs print and crude oil near $90 a barrel.

Line chart of U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (left axis) versus S&P 500 year-over-year percent change (right axis), monthly from 2011 through 2026.
Isabelnet’s ISM series still shows an eighth month of factory expansion, but the miss versus 55.2 and unchanged prices paid at 71.1 keep a September hike on the table. Source

Read next

πŸ“š What housing starts really measure, and why single-family versus multifamily matters more than the headline

Featured Post The day in view

πŸ“° Daily Macro Roundup: 2026-09-17

Become a Member

Daily and weekly briefings on global markets, for self-directed investors who want to be informed, not doomscrolled.

Sign up now