The Bank of England is priced at about 92% to raise Bank Rate a quarter point to 4.00% on Thursday. The vote, seen at 7-2, and new forecasts after September's 3.5% CPI will decide whether gilts keep pricing three to four more hikes.
September's 6-3 hold left three MPC members already preferring 4%, the split markets now expect to reverse in Thursday's first hike since August 2023. Source
Thursday's noon decision is close to a done deal: a quarter-point rise in Bank Rate to 4.00%. Economists polled by Reuters expect it, and money markets put the odds near 92%, according to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data. It would be the first rise since August 2023. The hike itself tells markets nothing new. The news is in the vote split and the Bank of England's (BoE) forecast path.
