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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tariff costs are moving into the selling chain, and the CPI print at 3.8% is probably a floor

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tariff costs are moving into the selling chain, and the CPI print at 3.8% is probably a floor

April PPI surged +1.4% MoM to a +6.0% annual rate as tariff costs move into the wholesale and retail chain. CPI hit 3.8% YoY, the 10-year reached 4.49%, and the soft-landing math is getting harder to defend.

Line chart of median consumer price index from 2018 to 2025 showing one-month annualized change and 12-month change.
Cleveland Fed median CPI trends through 2025.

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