Brent near $104 reached every emerging economy this week, yet September and October inflation prints ran from 1.6% in Hungary to 7.2% in the Philippines. Central banks hiked, held and cut in response to the same shock. The gap comes down to how fast fuel costs reach the wider consumer basket and what households expect, and both vary with each country's fuel pricing, currency pass-through and election calendar.
π One oil shock has split emerging market central banks into five inflation regimes
The week in view
π One oil shock has split emerging market central banks into five inflation regimes
Brent near $104 produced inflation of 1.6% in Hungary and 7.2% in the Philippines. The Philippine central bank hiked 50 basis points to 5.50%, Russia held at 14.00% and Turkey cut to 36%. Brazil's Sunday runoff is the next test.
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