US producer prices rose 1.3% in September against a 0.6% forecast, the biggest monthly move since March 2022, while core CPI held at 2.6%. The Fed has to work out whether that means a margin squeeze or delayed pass-through before the October 27 to 28 meeting.
Coin Bureau's Nic Puckrin argues services still add more to US CPI than energy even as oil surges, which is why a 3.7% headline print leaves the Fed little room to cut. Source
Follow one dollar of oil through September's data and it loses force at every step. Fuel import prices rose 34.5% over the year, producer energy goods jumped 10.8% in the month, and consumer gasoline climbed 9.1%. Core inflation rose just 0.3%. Headline CPI still printed 0.6% for the month, 3.7% year-on-year against 3.4% before, and gasoline supplied more than half of the gain.
