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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ May's 172K payrolls and 54.0 ISM demolished the tariff recession call

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ May's 172K payrolls and 54.0 ISM demolished the tariff recession call

May nonfarm payrolls printed 172,000 against an 80,000 consensus, and ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 54.0, a four-year high. Two data points that demolished the tariff recession call and left the Fed sitting on its hands.

Line chart of USOACH DEC2026 price from May to June 2026 with red arrow highlighting recent upward move.
The week's US data releases have shifted December rate hike pricing to 100 percent as the labor market and manufacturing both showed strength. Source

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