US pending home sales fell 7.3% to a record low and the 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.32%, while factory surveys ran hot and jobless claims dropped to 194,000. The Fed meets October 27 to 28, and economists still expect a December rate hike.
The 10-year Treasury’s largest one-day drop of 2026 pulled the yield back under 5% for the first time since late September, just days before an FOMC meeting markets now see as a hold. Source
This week's data split the US economy in two. Activity surveys and jobless claims point to growth at about a 4% pace. Pending home sales, meanwhile, hit a record low, and consumer sentiment stayed near the floor. The Federal Reserve goes into its October 27 to 28 meeting with the policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, after September's unanimous 25 basis point hike. There is no Summary of Economic Projections this time, so the statement and press conference carry all the signal.
