UK inflation hit 3.5% in September against a 3.4% forecast, factory-gate prices rose 4.6% and borrowing overshot by £1.9bn: one energy shock, three balance sheets. Investors expect a Bank of England hike to 4% on 5 November.
ONS figures put UK CPI at an 11-month high of 3.5% in September, tightening the fiscal backdrop for Healey's 28 October Budget. Source
Three balance sheets are taking one energy shock at once, which turns the 28 October Budget and the 5 November Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision into a single policy problem. September CPI came in at 3.5% (forecast: 3.4%; previous: 3.1%), the highest annual rate since October 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Motor fuel was up 29.8% on the year. Petrol is at 169.5p a litre and diesel at 192.5p.
