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🇺🇸 Fed hike odds hit 90% on a hotter core CPI, for a shock rate policy can't fix
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🇺🇸 Fed hike odds hit 90% on a hotter core CPI, for a shock rate policy can't fix

Macro Soup Newsroom Macro Soup Newsroom 4 min read

US core CPI rose 0.3% in August against a 0.2% forecast, pushing Fed rate hike odds to about 90% for a shock that's oil-driven and largely immune to rate policy.

FRED line chart of year-over-year percent change in U.S. CPI for all items less energy, roughly 2017 through 2026.
Caleb Franzen notes CPI excluding energy fell to 2.47% in August, the lowest since March 2021, even as markets still price an 85% chance of a Warsh hike next week. Source

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