Markets expect a hold at 3.75% to 4.00% this week, but all 100 economists in a Reuters poll see a December hike. Factory output prices are at their highest since 2022 while Michigan consumer sentiment, at 48.0, sits near a record low.
Chicago Fed’s CFNAI moved modestly above its historical trend in September as production added 0.13 while consumption and housing subtracted 0.08. Source
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets October 27 to 28, and CME FedWatch prices a hold at about 90%. The decision is due at 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. and no new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). A Reuters poll of 100 economists taken October 16 to 20 found 94 expecting a hold, while all 100 expect a hike at the December 8 to 9 meeting. Futures put that December hike near 76%. The target range sits at 3.75% to 4.00% after September's unanimous quarter-point increase.
