Spain's producer prices rose 18.3% and Italy's 13.8% in September, almost all of it energy, while French household confidence hit its lowest since 2013. The European Central Bank meets Thursday with rates expected to hold at 2.50%.
Holger Zschäpitz notes the Ifo “hope gap” widened to 2.8 points as expectations hit a post-February 2022 high while current conditions slipped, leaving the headline still well below its long-run average. Source
Producer prices in southern Europe are surging, and almost all of it is energy. Spain's industrial price index rose 18.3% year-on-year in September (previous: 13.2%), the highest since November 2022, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE). Energy was up 49.8%. The index excluding energy rose only 3.6% (previous: 3.4%). Italy has the same split. Its producer prices accelerated to 13.8% (previous: 10.9%), according to the national statistics agency Istat, with energy up 45.9% and everything else at 3.5% (previous: 3.3%). Germany was starker still. Destatis, the Federal Statistical Office, reported 6.7% overall, 14.9% for energy and just 0.1% excluding it.
