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🌏 EM central banks can't cut their way out of the 2026 oil shock
The day in view

🌏 EM central banks can't cut their way out of the 2026 oil shock

Macro Soup Newsroom Macro Soup Newsroom 4 min read

Brazil's IPCA consensus has now risen six weeks straight to 4.89%, 39 basis points above the official ceiling. South African markets are pricing a May rate hike. Across the EM complex, the 2026 easing cycle is stalling.

Table of median forecasts for IPCA variation, GDP growth, exchange rate, and Selic rate for Brazil in 2026, 2027, and 2028.
Median aggregated expectations for Brazilian IPCA inflation, GDP, exchange rate and Selic rate in 2026-2028. Source

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