Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Retail sales surged as Empire State collapsed, and the Fed hikes today anyway

US retail sales jumped 1.2% in August, beating forecasts, even as the Empire State Manufacturing Index collapsed to 7.6 from 20.6. The Fed delivers a widely expected quarter-point rate hike this afternoon under Chair Kevin Warsh.

🇺🇸 Retail sales surged as Empire State collapsed, and the Fed hikes today anyway
US retail sales jumped 1.2% in August, beating forecasts, even as the Empire State Manufacturing Index collapsed to 7.6 from 20.6. The Fed delivers a widely expected quarter-point rate hike this afternoon under Chair Kevin Warsh.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 ECB's inflation forecast is colliding with this week's data

German wholesale prices jumped 6.8% year-over-year in August, the fastest pace since February 2023, just as ECB board member Isabel Schnabel called recent energy-price moves "quite concerning." The central bank's temporary-shock assumption looks shakier by the day.

🇪🇺 ECB's inflation forecast is colliding with this week's data
German wholesale prices jumped 6.8% year-over-year in August, the fastest pace since February 2023, just as ECB board member Isabel Schnabel called recent energy-price moves "quite concerning." The central bank's temporary-shock assumption looks shakier by the day.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK inflation jumps to 3.1%, but it's an oil problem, not a Bailey problem

UK inflation rose to 3.1% in August on a petrol-price spike tied to Middle East oil disruptions. Core inflation held steady, the labour market kept weakening, and the Bank of England's rate call just got harder.

🇬🇧 UK inflation jumps to 3.1%, but it's an oil problem, not a Bailey problem
UK inflation rose to 3.1% in August on a petrol-price spike tied to Middle East oil disruptions. Core inflation held steady, the labour market kept weakening, and the Bank of England's rate call just got harder.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil cuts rates into its own inflation warning, right as the Fed hikes

Brazil cut its Selic policy rate 25 basis points to 13.75%, the fifth straight cut, hours after a wholesale price gauge unexpectedly jumped 1.47% in September. That undercuts its own disinflation case, right as the Fed hikes the same evening.

🌏 Brazil cuts rates into its own inflation warning, right as the Fed hikes
Brazil cut its Selic policy rate 25 basis points to 13.75%, the fifth straight cut, hours after a wholesale price gauge unexpectedly jumped 1.47% in September. That undercuts its own disinflation case, right as the Fed hikes the same evening.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's central bank tells markets the credit gauge doesn't mean what it used to

China's central bank governor used the Communist Party's top theoretical journal to argue that August's weak credit data, new loans of just ¥60bn against a roughly ¥400bn forecast, reflects a deliberate pivot toward interest-rate tools rather than a policy failure.

🇨🇳 China's central bank tells markets the credit gauge doesn't mean what it used to
China's central bank governor used the Communist Party's top theoretical journal to argue that August's weak credit data, new loans of just ¥60bn against a roughly ¥400bn forecast, reflects a deliberate pivot toward interest-rate tools rather than a policy failure.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.