Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 PPI's hottest print since 2022 hides a core inflation miss

US producer prices climbed 5.4% year over year in August, the hottest since 2022, but the beat was almost entirely a 24.1% diesel spike. Core PPI actually missed forecasts, complicating the Fed's decision ahead of Friday's CPI report.

🇺🇸 PPI's hottest print since 2022 hides a core inflation miss
US producer prices climbed 5.4% year over year in August, the hottest since 2022, but the beat was almost entirely a 24.1% diesel spike. Core PPI actually missed forecasts, complicating the Fed's decision ahead of Friday's CPI report.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 The ECB just hiked into an oil shock, and Bund yields are back at 2011 levels

The ECB hiked its deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on Thursday, its second increase of 2026, even as an oil shock keeps inflation elevated and 10-year German Bund yields sit at their highest since 2011.

🇪🇺 The ECB just hiked into an oil shock, and Bund yields are back at 2011 levels
The ECB hiked its deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on Thursday, its second increase of 2026, even as an oil shock keeps inflation elevated and 10-year German Bund yields sit at their highest since 2011.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 Gilts price three hikes the Bank of England insists aren't coming

UK gilt yields hit their highest level since 2007 this week, with futures markets pricing three Bank of England hikes by mid-2027. That's flatly at odds with a unanimous economist poll expecting no change from 3.75% through year-end.

🇬🇧 Gilts price three hikes the Bank of England insists aren't coming
UK gilt yields hit their highest level since 2007 this week, with futures markets pricing three Bank of England hikes by mid-2027. That's flatly at odds with a unanimous economist poll expecting no change from 3.75% through year-end.
Macro Soup

🌏 South Africa's current account surplus didn't survive the oil shock that Turkey shrugged off

South Africa's current account flipped from a R181.6bn surplus to a R205.5bn deficit in a single quarter as oil import costs jumped 82.1%, a sharper reversal than Turkey, Mexico or Brazil have faced from the same energy shock.

🌏 South Africa's current account surplus didn't survive the oil shock that Turkey shrugged off
South Africa's current account flipped from a R181.6bn surplus to a R205.5bn deficit in a single quarter as oil import costs jumped 82.1%, a sharper reversal than Turkey, Mexico or Brazil have faced from the same energy shock.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's inflation rebound is an energy story, not a credit one

China's CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year in August and PPI climbed 3.8%, but the gains sit almost entirely in energy and raw materials. Core inflation and factory-gate consumer goods barely moved, which points to an import-driven rebound, not a credit-driven one.

🇨🇳 China's inflation rebound is an energy story, not a credit one
China's CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year in August and PPI climbed 3.8%, but the gains sit almost entirely in energy and raw materials. Core inflation and factory-gate consumer goods barely moved, which points to an import-driven rebound, not a credit-driven one.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.