Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Fed hawks push September hike odds to 60% as payrolls shrink

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech pushed September rate-hike odds from 35% to roughly 60%, even as July payrolls fell by 23,000 and prior months were revised down a combined 103,000. Three Fed policymakers now want a hike despite the softening labor market.

🇺🇸 Fed hawks push September hike odds to 60% as payrolls shrink
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech pushed September rate-hike odds from 35% to roughly 60%, even as July payrolls fell by 23,000 and prior months were revised down a combined 103,000. Three Fed policymakers now want a hike despite the softening labor market.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Eurozone inflation jumps to 3.3%, and the ECB has one rate for four different economies

Euro area headline inflation jumped to 3.3% in August as energy costs surged, while core inflation eased to 2.4%. Markets expect a quarter-point ECB hike to a 2.50% deposit rate on 10 September, even as Germany's factories rebound while Spain's consumer prices run hottest in the bloc.

🇪🇺 Eurozone inflation jumps to 3.3%, and the ECB has one rate for four different economies
Euro area headline inflation jumped to 3.3% in August as energy costs surged, while core inflation eased to 2.4%. Markets expect a quarter-point ECB hike to a 2.50% deposit rate on 10 September, even as Germany's factories rebound while Spain's consumer prices run hottest in the bloc.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK mortgage approvals sink to a two-year low as oil and gilts squeeze from both sides

UK mortgage approvals sank to a two-year low of 56,100 in July as effective mortgage rates climbed to 4.45%. Shop-price inflation hit an 18-month high of 1.5% and the 10-year gilt yield pushed toward 5.2%, leaving the Bank of England squeezed ahead of its 17 September rate decision.

🇬🇧 UK mortgage approvals sink to a two-year low as oil and gilts squeeze from both sides
UK mortgage approvals sank to a two-year low of 56,100 in July as effective mortgage rates climbed to 4.45%. Shop-price inflation hit an 18-month high of 1.5% and the 10-year gilt yield pushed toward 5.2%, leaving the Bank of England squeezed ahead of its 17 September rate decision.
Macro Soup

🌏 Korea's chip exports hit a record, but the rest of EM tells two different stories

South Korea's August chip exports jumped 209% year-on-year to a record $46.65bn, driving a 68.7% headline export gain. India's 7.8% GDP beat came with a widening current account deficit, and Brazil's growth diverged sharply from a contracting manufacturing PMI.

🌏 Korea's chip exports hit a record, but the rest of EM tells two different stories
South Korea's August chip exports jumped 209% year-on-year to a record $46.65bn, driving a 68.7% headline export gain. India's 7.8% GDP beat came with a widening current account deficit, and Brazil's growth diverged sharply from a contracting manufacturing PMI.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's official PMI can't clear 50, but its exporters already have

China's official factory gauge edged up to 49.8 in August, still below the growth line, while the private RatingDog survey jumped to 51.5, the widest gap between the two readings in a year. A five-agency package now pushes developers toward completed-home sales as construction shrinks.

🇨🇳 China's official PMI can't clear 50, but its exporters already have
China's official factory gauge edged up to 49.8 in August, still below the growth line, while the private RatingDog survey jumped to 51.5, the widest gap between the two readings in a year. A five-agency package now pushes developers toward completed-home sales as construction shrinks.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.