Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Three Fed presidents break for a hike as small business optimism hits an 11-month high

Three sitting Fed policymakers, Hammack, Kashkari and Logan, are now on record favoring a rate hike after dissenting at the July meeting, while small-business optimism hit an 11-month high of 99.8. Wednesday's CPI print becomes the tiebreaker for September policy.

🇺🇸 Three Fed presidents break for a hike as small business optimism hits an 11-month high
Three sitting Fed policymakers, Hammack, Kashkari and Logan, are now on record favoring a rate hike after dissenting at the July meeting, while small-business optimism hit an 11-month high of 99.8. Wednesday's CPI print becomes the tiebreaker for September policy.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Bund yields keep climbing as the market catches up to the ECB's hawkish pivot

German and Spanish government bond auctions cleared higher this week, a sign the market is still catching up to the ECB's June hike to 2.25%, with Italian and French bond spreads the next pressure point to watch.

🇪🇺 Bund yields keep climbing as the market catches up to the ECB's hawkish pivot
German and Spanish government bond auctions cleared higher this week, a sign the market is still catching up to the ECB's June hike to 2.25%, with Italian and French bond spreads the next pressure point to watch.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK calendar goes quiet, but the BoE's hawkish split doesn't

The BoE's rate committee held at 3.75% in July on a 6-3 vote, but every dissent favored a hike, not a cut. UK CPI cooled to 2.6% in June even as the Bank's own forecasts show unemployment climbing to 5.6% in 2026, setting up a genuinely contested September 17 decision.

🇬🇧 UK calendar goes quiet, but the BoE's hawkish split doesn't
The BoE's rate committee held at 3.75% in July on a 6-3 vote, but every dissent favored a hike, not a cut. UK CPI cooled to 2.6% in June even as the Bank's own forecasts show unemployment climbing to 5.6% in 2026, setting up a genuinely contested September 17 decision.
Macro Soup

🌏 South Africa's jobless rate hits a four-year high while Brazil's rate cuts stay on track

South Africa's jobless rate hit 33.6% in Q2, a four-year high. Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark rate to 14.00% as inflation keeps easing toward target.

🌏 South Africa's jobless rate hits a four-year high while Brazil's rate cuts stay on track
South Africa's jobless rate hit 33.6% in Q2, a four-year high. Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark rate to 14.00% as inflation keeps easing toward target.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's reflation breaks through, then stalls after one quarter

China's PPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in July, down from 4.1% in June and below forecast, while CPI rose just 0.5%, a six-month low, as the country's brief reflation trade stalls after one strong quarter.

🇨🇳 China's reflation breaks through, then stalls after one quarter
China's PPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in July, down from 4.1% in June and below forecast, while CPI rose just 0.5%, a six-month low, as the country's brief reflation trade stalls after one strong quarter.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.