Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Warsh's hawkish debut lands right as the energy tailwind behind June's soft prints is about to reverse

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told Congress on July 14 that the Fed's inflation gauges are broken and called every rate meeting live, right as the Iran ceasefire that flattered June's −0.4% CPI and −0.3% PPI prints looks set to unravel.

🇺🇸 Warsh's hawkish debut lands right as the energy tailwind behind June's soft prints is about to reverse
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told Congress on July 14 that the Fed's inflation gauges are broken and called every rate meeting live, right as the Iran ceasefire that flattered June's −0.4% CPI and −0.3% PPI prints looks set to unravel.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Factories are shrinking and Spanish prices won't budge, making the ECB's July 23 hold harder to wave through as routine

Eurozone industrial production fell 1.2% year-on-year in May, more than double the expected decline. Spain's CPI held at 3.2% ahead of the ECB's July 23 meeting, a mix that complicates the case for a cut or a hold.

🇪🇺 Factories are shrinking and Spanish prices won't budge, making the ECB's July 23 hold harder to wave through as routine
Eurozone industrial production fell 1.2% year-on-year in May, more than double the expected decline. Spain's CPI held at 3.2% ahead of the ECB's July 23 meeting, a mix that complicates the case for a cut or a hold.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 Bailey pitches growth at Mansion House while Treasury's own numbers price in a hike

Andrew Bailey pitched growth-friendly regulation at his July 14 Mansion House speech. The same evening, Treasury projections put Q4 inflation at 3.2% and modeled a $150-a-barrel oil shock, both pointing to another rate hike.

🇬🇧 Bailey pitches growth at Mansion House while Treasury's own numbers price in a hike
Andrew Bailey pitched growth-friendly regulation at his July 14 Mansion House speech. The same evening, Treasury projections put Q4 inflation at 3.2% and modeled a $150-a-barrel oil shock, both pointing to another rate hike.
Macro Soup

🌏 Korea hikes rates while Brazil counts the cost of its own tightening cycle

The Bank of Korea hiked 25 basis points to 2.75%, its first increase in three years, after inflation hit 3.2% year-on-year. Brazil's services sector shrank 0.4% in May, the lagged bite of a near-15% policy rate.

🌏 Korea hikes rates while Brazil counts the cost of its own tightening cycle
The Bank of Korea hiked 25 basis points to 2.75%, its first increase in three years, after inflation hit 3.2% year-on-year. Brazil's services sector shrank 0.4% in May, the lagged bite of a near-15% policy rate.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's credit engine is stalling, and Q2 growth just broke through the floor

China's economy grew 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, missing Beijing's 4.5-5% target as new bank lending, broad credit financing, and money supply growth all fell short of forecasts, according to China's statistics bureau and central bank.

🇨🇳 China's credit engine is stalling, and Q2 growth just broke through the floor
China's economy grew 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, missing Beijing's 4.5-5% target as new bank lending, broad credit financing, and money supply growth all fell short of forecasts, according to China's statistics bureau and central bank.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.