Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Warsh's first Humphrey-Hawkins testimony walks straight into the softest core CPI print in years

US consumer prices fell 0.4% in June, the sharpest monthly drop in more than six years, while core inflation came in flat, complicating new Fed chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut before Congress just weeks after the FOMC signaled more hikes.

🇺🇸 Warsh's first Humphrey-Hawkins testimony walks straight into the softest core CPI print in years
US consumer prices fell 0.4% in June, the sharpest monthly drop in more than six years, while core inflation came in flat, complicating new Fed chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut before Congress just weeks after the FOMC signaled more hikes.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Eurozone contracts in Q1, but the ECB just started hiking anyway

Eurozone GDP shrank 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 even as the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June on persistent services inflation of 3.5%. Today's data should show whether the contraction is Irish statistical noise or something broader.

🇪🇺 Eurozone contracts in Q1, but the ECB just started hiking anyway
Eurozone GDP shrank 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 even as the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June on persistent services inflation of 3.5%. Today's data should show whether the contraction is Irish statistical noise or something broader.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 The BoE's 7-2 split, not Bailey's Mansion House speech, is the real story today

The BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 7-2 vote on June 17, its widest split of the cutting cycle. June inflation data lands July 22, and the next rate decision on July 30 will show which way that split breaks.

🇬🇧 The BoE's 7-2 split, not Bailey's Mansion House speech, is the real story today
The BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 7-2 vote on June 17, its widest split of the cutting cycle. June inflation data lands July 22, and the next rate decision on July 30 will show which way that split breaks.
Macro Soup

🌏 India's inflation gap is widening, Korea's exports just hit a record, and South Africa's gold output is falling despite record bullion prices

India's wholesale inflation hit 9.87% year-over-year, widening the gap with consumer prices ahead of the RBI's August rate decision. Korea logged a record $36.15bn trade surplus on chip exports, and South African gold output fell for a second straight month despite record bullion prices.

🌏 India's inflation gap is widening, Korea's exports just hit a record, and South Africa's gold output is falling despite record bullion prices
India's wholesale inflation hit 9.87% year-over-year, widening the gap with consumer prices ahead of the RBI's August rate decision. Korea logged a record $36.15bn trade surplus on chip exports, and South African gold output fell for a second straight month despite record bullion prices.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's exports just had their best month since 2021, and most of it is tariff arbitrage

China's exports rose 27% year-on-year in June, the fastest pace since 2021, but the surge lines up with a frontloading rush ahead of new US tariffs on July 24. Consumer inflation stayed soft at 1.0%, and the trade surplus hit $125.62bn.

🇨🇳 China's exports just had their best month since 2021, and most of it is tariff arbitrage
China's exports rose 27% year-on-year in June, the fastest pace since 2021, but the surge lines up with a frontloading rush ahead of new US tariffs on July 24. Consumer inflation stayed soft at 1.0%, and the trade surplus hit $125.62bn.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.