Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Warsh stacks the Fed's review panels with its sharpest QE critics

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has staffed his new review panels on the balance sheet and communications framework with the central bank's own sharpest quantitative easing critics, including Jeremy Stein and Raghuram Rajan. Jobless claims, meanwhile, held at 215,000 for the week ending July 4.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Warsh stacks the Fed's review panels with its sharpest QE critics
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has staffed his new review panels on the balance sheet and communications framework with the central bank's own sharpest quantitative easing critics, including Jeremy Stein and Raghuram Rajan. Jobless claims, meanwhile, held at 215,000 for the week ending July 4.
Macro Soup

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί German inflation cools to 2.4% while the eurozone accelerates to a three-year high

Germany's June inflation cooled to 2.4% year-on-year, but the eurozone's flash headline jumped to 3.2%, the highest since September 2023. That gap is what the ECB has to reconcile at its July 22-23 meeting, weeks after its first rate hike in nearly three years.

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί German inflation cools to 2.4% while the eurozone accelerates to a three-year high
Germany's June inflation cooled to 2.4% year-on-year, but the eurozone's flash headline jumped to 3.2%, the highest since September 2023. That gap is what the ECB has to reconcile at its July 22-23 meeting, weeks after its first rate hike in nearly three years.
Macro Soup

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ GBP shorts swell to crisis-era levels as UK calendar stays bare

Speculative traders are net short GBP by βˆ’102.1K contracts, per US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, a level last seen during the 2022 gilt crisis and the 2016 Brexit vote, even as the UK calendar produced no CPI, GDP, or Bank of England commentary this week.

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ GBP shorts swell to crisis-era levels as UK calendar stays bare
Speculative traders are net short GBP by βˆ’102.1K contracts, per US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, a level last seen during the 2022 gilt crisis and the 2016 Brexit vote, even as the UK calendar produced no CPI, GDP, or Bank of England commentary this week.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil cools, India stockpiles, Korea sours as EM splits into three different trades

Brazil's IPCA cooled to 4.64% year-on-year in June, below the 4.80% forecast. India's bank credit growth accelerated to 18.6% and foreign reserves rose to $674.19bn. South Korea's consumer sentiment fell further below the neutral 50 line as tariffs weigh on exporters.

🌏 Brazil cools, India stockpiles, Korea sours as EM splits into three different trades
Brazil's IPCA cooled to 4.64% year-on-year in June, below the 4.80% forecast. India's bank credit growth accelerated to 18.6% and foreign reserves rose to $674.19bn. South Korea's consumer sentiment fell further below the neutral 50 line as tariffs weigh on exporters.
Macro Soup

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China's CPI rebound is a scissors gap, not a recovery

China's June CPI rose just 1.0% year-on-year, missing forecasts, while producer prices jumped to 4.1%, the fastest pace since July 2022. An oil-driven cost shock is squeezing factory margins and boxing in the PBOC's easing path.

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China's CPI rebound is a scissors gap, not a recovery
China's June CPI rose just 1.0% year-on-year, missing forecasts, while producer prices jumped to 4.1%, the fastest pace since July 2022. An oil-driven cost shock is squeezing factory margins and boxing in the PBOC's easing path.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.