Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 US labor market stability is now an argument against rate cuts, not for them

New York Fed President John Williams said the risk to the outlook now tilts toward inflation, not growth, as weekly jobless claims fell to 215,000 and the US trade deficit widened to $77.6bn in May.

🇺🇸 US labor market stability is now an argument against rate cuts, not for them
New York Fed President John Williams said the risk to the outlook now tilts toward inflation, not growth, as weekly jobless claims fell to 215,000 and the US trade deficit widened to $77.6bn in May.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 ECB minutes reveal a hiking cycle it didn't want, and traders are now pricing three moves this year

ECB accounts from the June meeting show traders pricing an 84% chance of a third rate hike this year, even as German export strength masks weak domestic demand and peripheral bond costs stay calm.

🇪🇺 ECB minutes reveal a hiking cycle it didn't want, and traders are now pricing three moves this year
ECB accounts from the June meeting show traders pricing an 84% chance of a third rate hike this year, even as German export strength masks weak domestic demand and peripheral bond costs stay calm.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 The Bank of England's first hawkish dissent in this cutting cycle is a stagflation warning

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%, but the meeting's first hawkish dissent of the cutting cycle matters more. UK construction PMI sub-indices just hit their weakest levels since 2020, while CPI sits at 2.8%.

🇬🇧 The Bank of England's first hawkish dissent in this cutting cycle is a stagflation warning
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%, but the meeting's first hawkish dissent of the cutting cycle matters more. UK construction PMI sub-indices just hit their weakest levels since 2020, while CPI sits at 2.8%.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's trade surplus hides an $18bn capital exodus

Brazil's financial account swung from a +$9.13bn inflow in February to roughly −$18bn by July, even as the trade surplus tops $34bn. South African manufacturing fell −4.3% year-over-year while Indian money supply growth accelerated to 13.0%.

🌏 Brazil's trade surplus hides an $18bn capital exodus
Brazil's financial account swung from a +$9.13bn inflow in February to roughly −$18bn by July, even as the trade surplus tops $34bn. South African manufacturing fell −4.3% year-over-year while Indian money supply growth accelerated to 13.0%.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's factory-gate inflation looks like recovery. It's actually a war tax

China's producer prices rose 4.1% year-over-year in June, the fastest pace in nearly four years, while consumer prices grew just 1.0%. War-driven energy costs are squeezing factory margins that weak domestic demand won't let manufacturers pass on.

🇨🇳 China's factory-gate inflation looks like recovery. It's actually a war tax
China's producer prices rose 4.1% year-over-year in June, the fastest pace in nearly four years, while consumer prices grew just 1.0%. War-driven energy costs are squeezing factory margins that weak domestic demand won't let manufacturers pass on.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.