Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Fed minutes, not the new chair, are about to move markets

The Fed releases June FOMC minutes today after new chair Kevin Warsh offered no forward guidance at his first press conference; the median 2026 rate projection jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine of eighteen members open to a hike this year.

🇺🇸 Fed minutes, not the new chair, are about to move markets
The Fed releases June FOMC minutes today after new chair Kevin Warsh offered no forward guidance at his first press conference; the median 2026 rate projection jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine of eighteen members open to a hike this year.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 A hawkish ECB collides with a construction sector still stuck at 2023 lows

Eurozone construction PMI fell to 42.8 in June from 43.7, back near 2023 lows, weeks after the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25%, exposing a hawkish-dovish split on the Governing Council ahead of the July 23 meeting.

🇪🇺 A hawkish ECB collides with a construction sector still stuck at 2023 lows
Eurozone construction PMI fell to 42.8 in June from 43.7, back near 2023 lows, weeks after the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25%, exposing a hawkish-dovish split on the Governing Council ahead of the July 23 meeting.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 BoE dissenters wanted a hike as construction posts its worst reading since lockdown

The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% on June 17, but two of nine policymakers dissented for a 25-basis-point hike, even as UK construction data showed the civil engineering sub-index collapsing to 22.1, the weakest reading since the April 2020 pandemic lockdown.

🇬🇧 BoE dissenters wanted a hike as construction posts its worst reading since lockdown
The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% on June 17, but two of nine policymakers dissented for a 25-basis-point hike, even as UK construction data showed the civil engineering sub-index collapsing to 22.1, the weakest reading since the April 2020 pandemic lockdown.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's central bank is now fighting a strong currency, not a weak one

Brazil's central bank bought dollars in May for the first time in a decade, defending against a real that's up roughly 11% year-to-date after net FX flows flipped from a $33.3bn outflow in 2025 to a $9.29bn monthly inflow in April 2026.

🌏 Brazil's central bank is now fighting a strong currency, not a weak one
Brazil's central bank bought dollars in May for the first time in a decade, defending against a real that's up roughly 11% year-to-date after net FX flows flipped from a $33.3bn outflow in 2025 to a $9.29bn monthly inflow in April 2026.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 PBOC repeats its easing pledge, but China's real rates say otherwise

China's central bank reaffirmed a "moderately loose" stance on July 8 without any new rate or reserve-requirement cut, even as producer price deflation stretches past two and a half years and June trade data show imports outgrowing exports.

🇨🇳 PBOC repeats its easing pledge, but China's real rates say otherwise
China's central bank reaffirmed a "moderately loose" stance on July 8 without any new rate or reserve-requirement cut, even as producer price deflation stretches past two and a half years and June trade data show imports outgrowing exports.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.