Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Waller admits the Fed's favorite policy tool is unreliable, right before CPI decides which way the outlook breaks

Fed Governor Christopher Waller called forward guidance more art than science ahead of a rare bimodal outlook splitting sticky inflation risk from a fast-cooling labor market, with June CPI due July 14 set to resolve which risk dominates.

🇺🇸 Waller admits the Fed's favorite policy tool is unreliable, right before CPI decides which way the outlook breaks
Fed Governor Christopher Waller called forward guidance more art than science ahead of a rare bimodal outlook splitting sticky inflation risk from a fast-cooling labor market, with June CPI due July 14 set to resolve which risk dominates.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Eurozone sentiment jumps to −3.1 while producer prices keep climbing toward 6%

Sentix investor confidence rebounded to −3.1 in July, far above the −14.5 forecast, even as eurozone producer prices climbed to 5.9% year-over-year in May, the fastest pace since the 2022 energy crisis. That complicates the European Central Bank's June rate hike to 2.25%.

🇪🇺 Eurozone sentiment jumps to −3.1 while producer prices keep climbing toward 6%
Sentix investor confidence rebounded to −3.1 in July, far above the −14.5 forecast, even as eurozone producer prices climbed to 5.9% year-over-year in May, the fastest pace since the 2022 energy crisis. That complicates the European Central Bank's June rate hike to 2.25%.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 Bank of England warns on equity risk as UK construction hits a record low

The Bank of England warned stretched equity valuations could trigger a correction that cuts UK GDP by up to 2.2 percentage points, the same week construction PMI fell to 38.4, a sixth straight month of contraction and the worst non-crisis reading on record.

🇬🇧 Bank of England warns on equity risk as UK construction hits a record low
The Bank of England warned stretched equity valuations could trigger a correction that cuts UK GDP by up to 2.2 percentage points, the same week construction PMI fell to 38.4, a sixth straight month of contraction and the worst non-crisis reading on record.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's wholesale prices swing negative as EM central banks split into cutters and defenders

Brazil's wholesale price index fell 0.79% in June, reversing May's 0.87% gain and giving the central bank more room to cut. Indonesia hiked instead, defending its currency, a split now forming between EM growth cutters and currency defenders.

🌏 Brazil's wholesale prices swing negative as EM central banks split into cutters and defenders
Brazil's wholesale price index fell 0.79% in June, reversing May's 0.87% gain and giving the central bank more room to cut. Indonesia hiked instead, defending its currency, a split now forming between EM growth cutters and currency defenders.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's central bank has bought gold for 20 straight months, and that's the whole story this week

China's central bank bought roughly 14.9 tonnes of gold in June, its 20th straight month of purchases, even as total foreign exchange reserves dipped to $3.416tn from May's $3.442tn high, according to state currency regulator data.

🇨🇳 China's central bank has bought gold for 20 straight months, and that's the whole story this week
China's central bank bought roughly 14.9 tonnes of gold in June, its 20th straight month of purchases, even as total foreign exchange reserves dipped to $3.416tn from May's $3.442tn high, according to state currency regulator data.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.