Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Warsh's Sintra debut sounds like Powell, not the chair Trump was promised

Kevin Warsh's first public remarks as Federal Reserve chair, at the ECB's Sintra Forum on July 1, leaned hawkish rather than the rate-cut pivot markets priced into his divisive May confirmation, while fresh US job-openings data hit a two-year high.

🇺🇸 Warsh's Sintra debut sounds like Powell, not the chair Trump was promised
Kevin Warsh's first public remarks as Federal Reserve chair, at the ECB's Sintra Forum on July 1, leaned hawkish rather than the rate-cut pivot markets priced into his divisive May confirmation, while fresh US job-openings data hit a two-year high.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Eurozone inflation cools to 2.8%, but Lagarde's Sintra playbook still points to a July hike

Eurozone headline inflation fell to 2.8% year-over-year in June, undercutting the 3.0% forecast. Christine Lagarde's Sintra remarks still keep a July rate hike in play despite the soft print.

🇪🇺 Eurozone inflation cools to 2.8%, but Lagarde's Sintra playbook still points to a July hike
Eurozone headline inflation fell to 2.8% year-over-year in June, undercutting the 3.0% forecast. Christine Lagarde's Sintra remarks still keep a July rate hike in play despite the soft print.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 A 7-2 BoE vote exposes cracks in the rate-cut consensus

The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% on a 7-2 vote in June, its most hawkish split since the easing cycle began, with two policymakers pushing for a hike over energy-price risk tied to the fragile Iran truce.

🇬🇧 A 7-2 BoE vote exposes cracks in the rate-cut consensus
The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% on a 7-2 vote in June, its most hawkish split since the easing cycle began, with two policymakers pushing for a hike over energy-price risk tied to the fragile Iran truce.
Macro Soup

🌏 Korea just posted its first-ever $100bn export month, and one product did nearly all the work

South Korea broke $100bn in monthly exports for the first time in June, with semiconductor shipments nearly tripling to $44.82bn even as factory sentiment cooled to 52.1. India, Brazil, and South Africa's PMI moves had nothing to do with any of it.

🌏 Korea just posted its first-ever $100bn export month, and one product did nearly all the work
South Korea broke $100bn in monthly exports for the first time in June, with semiconductor shipments nearly tripling to $44.82bn even as factory sentiment cooled to 52.1. India, Brazil, and South Africa's PMI moves had nothing to do with any of it.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's factory PMI notches its longest expansion streak in two years, but the jobs line still won't move

China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June, its longest stretch above 50 in roughly two years, but the factory employment sub-index stayed in contraction at 48.4, even as equipment and high-tech export segments drove the gain.

🇨🇳 China's factory PMI notches its longest expansion streak in two years, but the jobs line still won't move
China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June, its longest stretch above 50 in roughly two years, but the factory employment sub-index stayed in contraction at 48.4, even as equipment and high-tech export segments drove the gain.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.