Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Warsh reaches for Greenspan's playbook, but the inflation math doesn't follow

Warsh dropped explicit forward guidance at his first press conference, but the macro backdrop isn't cooperating: a 3.6% year-end PCE inflation projection and May payrolls at 172K against an 85K consensus.

🇺🇸 Warsh reaches for Greenspan's playbook, but the inflation math doesn't follow
Warsh dropped explicit forward guidance at his first press conference, but the macro backdrop isn't cooperating: a 3.6% year-end PCE inflation projection and May payrolls at 172K against an 85K consensus.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Spain's HICP holds at 3.6% and eurozone M3 accelerates, putting a second ECB hike back in play

Spain's June flash HICP came in at 3.6% year-on-year, above the 3.4% forecast. Eurozone M3 accelerated to 3.2% in May against a 2.7% consensus, keeping a second ECB rate hike firmly in play.

🇪🇺 Spain's HICP holds at 3.6% and eurozone M3 accelerates, putting a second ECB hike back in play
Spain's June flash HICP came in at 3.6% year-on-year, above the 3.4% forecast. Eurozone M3 accelerated to 3.2% in May against a 2.7% consensus, keeping a second ECB rate hike firmly in play.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK mortgage approvals fall to 56,205 in May as private credit cools, and the hawks' hike case weakens with it

UK mortgage approvals fell to 56,205 in May, a 15% monthly drop that missed the 63,000 consensus, with net mortgage lending at £2.89bn against a £4.6bn forecast. Private credit is cooling across every measure, making the hawks' push to lift Bank Rate to 4.00% harder to sustain.

🇬🇧 UK mortgage approvals fall to 56,205 in May as private credit cools, and the hawks' hike case weakens with it
UK mortgage approvals fell to 56,205 in May, a 15% monthly drop that missed the 63,000 consensus, with net mortgage lending at £2.89bn against a £4.6bn forecast. Private credit is cooling across every measure, making the hawks' push to lift Bank Rate to 4.00% harder to sustain.
Macro Soup

🌏 India beats on industrial output, Brazil's wholesale prices turn negative, and the EM divide keeps widening

India's industrial production index rose 5.1% year-over-year in May, beating the 4.7% consensus. Brazil's wholesale price index swung to −0.5% month-on-month in June. Together, they widen the divide between anchor EMs and those cutting into above-target inflation.

🌏 India beats on industrial output, Brazil's wholesale prices turn negative, and the EM divide keeps widening
India's industrial production index rose 5.1% year-over-year in May, beating the 4.7% consensus. Brazil's wholesale price index swung to −0.5% month-on-month in June. Together, they widen the divide between anchor EMs and those cutting into above-target inflation.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 Tonight's June PMI is the first clean read on whether China's factory momentum outlasts tariff front-loading

China's June manufacturing PMI prints tonight, the first full-month read under the post-tariff-truce regime. Consensus is 50.1; May eased to 50.0 from April's front-loading peak of 50.3.

🇨🇳 Tonight's June PMI is the first clean read on whether China's factory momentum outlasts tariff front-loading
China's June manufacturing PMI prints tonight, the first full-month read under the post-tariff-truce regime. Consensus is 50.1; May eased to 50.0 from April's front-loading peak of 50.3.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.