Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Three months at 3.4%: core PCE won't budge, and the economy won't help

Core PCE held at 3.4% year-over-year for a third consecutive month in May. Personal income beat at +0.7% and Q1 GDP was revised to 2.1%, closing the door on near-term cuts.

🇺🇸 Three months at 3.4%: core PCE won't budge, and the economy won't help
Core PCE held at 3.4% year-over-year for a third consecutive month in May. Personal income beat at +0.7% and Q1 GDP was revised to 2.1%, closing the door on near-term cuts.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Spanish GDP holds at 2.7% while the ECB tightens into a consumer that never recovered

German consumer confidence held near record lows (GfK at −29.2 for July) even as Spain confirmed 2.7% annual GDP growth in Q1 2026. With the deposit rate now at 2.25%, the ECB is tightening into an economy where demand across the bloc's largest members has not recovered.

🇪🇺 Spanish GDP holds at 2.7% while the ECB tightens into a consumer that never recovered
German consumer confidence held near record lows (GfK at −29.2 for July) even as Spain confirmed 2.7% annual GDP growth in Q1 2026. With the deposit rate now at 2.25%, the ECB is tightening into an economy where demand across the bloc's largest members has not recovered.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK retail is printing at lockdown-era levels and two Bank of England members still want to hike

June's CBI Distributive Trades Survey printed −54, its weakest reading outside Covid lockdowns, while the Bank of England holds at 3.75% with two MPC members pushing to hike to 4%.

🇬🇧 UK retail is printing at lockdown-era levels and two Bank of England members still want to hike
June's CBI Distributive Trades Survey printed −54, its weakest reading outside Covid lockdowns, while the Bank of England holds at 3.75% with two MPC members pushing to hike to 4%.
Macro Soup

🌏 At 7.8%, South Africa's PPI puts a number on the EM commodity divide

South Africa's PPI hit 7.8% year-on-year in May, up from 4.8%, with diesel costs running 53.8% higher. Brazil's IPCA-15 printed above the central bank's tolerance ceiling for a third straight month. Copom cut anyway.

🌏 At 7.8%, South Africa's PPI puts a number on the EM commodity divide
South Africa's PPI hit 7.8% year-on-year in May, up from 4.8%, with diesel costs running 53.8% higher. Brazil's IPCA-15 printed above the central bank's tolerance ceiling for a third straight month. Copom cut anyway.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 PBOC holds for a record 13th month. Bank margins, not caution, are the constraint.

China's central bank held rates for a record 13th month in June 2026. With commercial bank net interest margins at a historic low of 1.40%, further cuts require a fiscal recapitalization that Beijing hasn't committed to.

🇨🇳 PBOC holds for a record 13th month. Bank margins, not caution, are the constraint.
China's central bank held rates for a record 13th month in June 2026. With commercial bank net interest margins at a historic low of 1.40%, further cuts require a fiscal recapitalization that Beijing hasn't committed to.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.