Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Warsh drops his dot and the guidance, leaving nine hawkish colleagues to speak for the Fed

Warsh declined to file a dot in the June SEP, the first Fed chair since 2012 to withhold his own projection. Nine of 18 participants favor at least one hike in 2026. Housing starts fell 15.4% month-over-month in May.

🇺🇸 Warsh drops his dot and the guidance, leaving nine hawkish colleagues to speak for the Fed
Warsh declined to file a dot in the June SEP, the first Fed chair since 2012 to withhold his own projection. Nine of 18 participants favor at least one hike in 2026. Housing starts fell 15.4% month-over-month in May.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 ECB's first hike since 2023 lands in an economy the June data says is barely growing

The eurozone composite PMI flash came in at 49.5 in June, still in contraction, as the ECB deals with conflicting signals: Lagarde closed the door on a new tightening cycle while Bundesbank chief Nagel flagged a possible July follow-on after the ECB's first rate rise since September 2023.

🇪🇺 ECB's first hike since 2023 lands in an economy the June data says is barely growing
The eurozone composite PMI flash came in at 49.5 in June, still in contraction, as the ECB deals with conflicting signals: Lagarde closed the door on a new tightening cycle while Bundesbank chief Nagel flagged a possible July follow-on after the ECB's first rate rise since September 2023.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 Manufacturing flatters the UK PMI, but services are sinking at the fastest pace in three years

UK June flash composite PMI fell to 49.4, missing the 50.0 consensus, as services hit 48.7, the weakest since January 2023. The BoE held at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote; Greene and Pill both pushed for a hike into a contracting economy.

🇬🇧 Manufacturing flatters the UK PMI, but services are sinking at the fastest pace in three years
UK June flash composite PMI fell to 49.4, missing the 50.0 consensus, as services hit 48.7, the weakest since January 2023. The BoE held at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote; Greene and Pill both pushed for a hike into a contracting economy.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's confidence split exposes the shallow-cut trap squeezing EM central banks

Brazil's confidence headline (88.7) held steady; the sub-indices split. Current conditions improved while expectations fell. Three cuts have brought the Selic to 14.25%, but the real rate sits near 9.5%. That bind is playing out across EM central banks.

🌏 Brazil's confidence split exposes the shallow-cut trap squeezing EM central banks
Brazil's confidence headline (88.7) held steady; the sub-indices split. Current conditions improved while expectations fell. Three cuts have brought the Selic to 14.25%, but the real rate sits near 9.5%. That bind is playing out across EM central banks.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's rate freeze extends to 13 months, but the export surplus propping up the yuan looks increasingly fragile into H2

The PBOC held the one-year LPR at 3.00% for a 13th consecutive month. YTD FDI fell −8.6% through May, and the export surplus supporting yuan stability looks increasingly fragile into H2 2026.

🇨🇳 China's rate freeze extends to 13 months, but the export surplus propping up the yuan looks increasingly fragile into H2
The PBOC held the one-year LPR at 3.00% for a 13th consecutive month. YTD FDI fell −8.6% through May, and the export surplus supporting yuan stability looks increasingly fragile into H2 2026.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.