Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 June flash PMI arrives with services at 51.1 and Kevin Warsh's congressional debut three weeks out

Flash June PMI prints today with services at 51.1, barely above the expansion line. A miss sharpens the contradiction between the hawkish FOMC dot plot and Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony on July 14.

🇺🇸 June flash PMI arrives with services at 51.1 and Kevin Warsh's congressional debut three weeks out
Flash June PMI prints today with services at 51.1, barely above the expansion line. A miss sharpens the contradiction between the hawkish FOMC dot plot and Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony on July 14.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 The ECB raised rates into a contracting eurozone, then sent Lagarde to parliament to justify it

The ECB hiked 25 basis points on June 11 into a eurozone composite PMI of 49.5, still in contraction. Germany's services PMI fell to 46.8. European Commission consumer confidence landed at −19, well below the −17.5 consensus.

🇪🇺 The ECB raised rates into a contracting eurozone, then sent Lagarde to parliament to justify it
The ECB hiked 25 basis points on June 11 into a eurozone composite PMI of 49.5, still in contraction. Germany's services PMI fell to 46.8. European Commission consumer confidence landed at −19, well below the −17.5 consensus.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK services PMI sinks to 48.7 as Starmer's exit leaves the BoE carrying the economy alone

June's UK flash composite PMI came in at 49.4 (forecast: 50.6) with services at 48.7, back-to-back sub-50 readings that point to flat or negative Q2 GDP. Keir Starmer's resignation on June 22 leaves fiscal policy effectively offline as the Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75%.

🇬🇧 UK services PMI sinks to 48.7 as Starmer's exit leaves the BoE carrying the economy alone
June's UK flash composite PMI came in at 49.4 (forecast: 50.6) with services at 48.7, back-to-back sub-50 readings that point to flat or negative Q2 GDP. Keir Starmer's resignation on June 22 leaves fiscal policy effectively offline as the Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75%.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's Copom cuts the Selic to 14.25% as inflation expectations drift further from target; India holds at 5.25%

Brazil's Copom cut the Selic to 14.25% for a third consecutive meeting even as inflation expectations sit at 5.3%, well above the BCB's 3.0% target. India's RBI holds at 5.25% as the June composite PMI slips to 57.4.

🌏 Brazil's Copom cuts the Selic to 14.25% as inflation expectations drift further from target; India holds at 5.25%
Brazil's Copom cut the Selic to 14.25% for a third consecutive meeting even as inflation expectations sit at 5.3%, well above the BCB's 3.0% target. India's RBI holds at 5.25% as the June composite PMI slips to 57.4.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's retail sales turned negative in May for the first time since the COVID lockdowns, and the PBoC held rates anyway

China's retail sales fell 0.6% year-on-year in May, the first outright contraction since the COVID lockdowns of 2022, as the PBoC held rates for a 13th straight month. High-tech manufacturing grew 15.1%, deepening an industrial-consumer split that looks structural rather than cyclical.

🇨🇳 China's retail sales turned negative in May for the first time since the COVID lockdowns, and the PBoC held rates anyway
China's retail sales fell 0.6% year-on-year in May, the first outright contraction since the COVID lockdowns of 2022, as the PBoC held rates for a 13th straight month. High-tech manufacturing grew 15.1%, deepening an industrial-consumer split that looks structural rather than cyclical.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.