Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Warsh drops the easing bias as consumer spending runs hot and hike dots reappear

The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% and dropped the easing bias. The dot plot showed hike projections for the first time this cycle, with zero cuts for 2026. May retail sales rose +0.9% month-over-month; import prices were up +6.7% year-over-year, the most since August 2022.

🇺🇸 Warsh drops the easing bias as consumer spending runs hot and hike dots reappear
The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% and dropped the easing bias. The dot plot showed hike projections for the first time this cycle, with zero cuts for 2026. May retail sales rose +0.9% month-over-month; import prices were up +6.7% year-over-year, the most since August 2022.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Lagarde hikes into near-stagnation as Europe's energy shock spreads to services

The ECB raised its deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11, the first hike since 2023. Eurozone headline inflation hit 3.2% year-on-year in May, with the services component jumping from 3.0% to 3.5% in a single month.

🇪🇺 Lagarde hikes into near-stagnation as Europe's energy shock spreads to services
The ECB raised its deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11, the first hike since 2023. Eurozone headline inflation hit 3.2% year-on-year in May, with the services component jumping from 3.0% to 3.5% in a single month.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK inflation holds at 2.8% in May, and Pill goes into tomorrow's MPC vote without the data he needed

UK CPI held at 2.8% year-on-year in May, missing the 3.0% consensus and leaving the BoE with little cover for a rate hike tomorrow. Watch the vote split in the June minutes: 8-1 keeps summer cuts alive, 7-2 puts August firmly in play.

🇬🇧 UK inflation holds at 2.8% in May, and Pill goes into tomorrow's MPC vote without the data he needed
UK CPI held at 2.8% year-on-year in May, missing the 3.0% consensus and leaving the BoE with little cover for a rate hike tomorrow. Watch the vote split in the June minutes: 8-1 keeps summer cuts alive, 7-2 puts August firmly in play.
Macro Soup

🌏 South Africa's May CPI lands at the SARB's midpoint, making the case against its May hike harder to sustain

South Africa's May CPI came in at 4.5% year-on-year, right at the SARB's target midpoint and below the 4.7% consensus, vindicating a contested May hike. Brazil's central bank meets today on whether to reverse recent cuts as inflation expectations drift higher for 21 consecutive weeks.

🌏 South Africa's May CPI lands at the SARB's midpoint, making the case against its May hike harder to sustain
South Africa's May CPI came in at 4.5% year-on-year, right at the SARB's target midpoint and below the 4.7% consensus, vindicating a contested May hike. Brazil's central bank meets today on whether to reverse recent cuts as inflation expectations drift higher for 21 consecutive weeks.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.