Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Housing starts miss big, but Warsh's import price problem is harder to ignore

Housing starts fell 15.4% in May to a 1.177m annualized rate, most of it multi-family noise. Back-to-back import price prints near 2% MoM push the 12-month rate to 6.7%. That's the backdrop for Warsh's first FOMC meeting Wednesday.

🇺🇸 Housing starts miss big, but Warsh's import price problem is harder to ignore
Housing starts fell 15.4% in May to a 1.177m annualized rate, most of it multi-family noise. Back-to-back import price prints near 2% MoM push the 12-month rate to 6.7%. That's the backdrop for Warsh's first FOMC meeting Wednesday.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 The ECB hiked on an energy shock, but wages may not let it stop there

The ECB raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11, but euro area negotiated wages growing at 3.4% year-on-year in Q1 2026 complicate the exit. June staff projections put headline HICP at 3.0% for 2026 with GDP revised to just 0.8%.

🇪🇺 The ECB hiked on an energy shock, but wages may not let it stop there
The ECB raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11, but euro area negotiated wages growing at 3.4% year-on-year in Q1 2026 complicate the exit. June staff projections put headline HICP at 3.0% for 2026 with GDP revised to just 0.8%.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 Reeves gets a clean gilt auction. The defence spending arithmetic is another matter.

The DMO's June 16 ten-year gilt cleared at 4.858%, down from 5.030% in May, with bid-to-cover holding at 3.46x. The defence spending numbers don't close, and gilt investors will eventually have to price that.

🇬🇧 Reeves gets a clean gilt auction. The defence spending arithmetic is another matter.
The DMO's June 16 ten-year gilt cleared at 4.858%, down from 5.030% in May, with bid-to-cover holding at 3.46x. The defence spending numbers don't close, and gilt investors will eventually have to price that.
Macro Soup

🌏 Bank Indonesia just proved the Iran war is an emerging-market monetary policy shock

Bank Indonesia hiked 25 basis points to 5.50% off-cycle after the rupiah hit an all-time low of 18,190 per dollar. The Iran war's energy shock has cracked the EM rate-cut consensus along commodity trade lines.

🌏 Bank Indonesia just proved the Iran war is an emerging-market monetary policy shock
Bank Indonesia hiked 25 basis points to 5.50% off-cycle after the rupiah hit an all-time low of 18,190 per dollar. The Iran war's energy shock has cracked the EM rate-cut consensus along commodity trade lines.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's first retail contraction since the pandemic exposes a widening production-consumption split

China retail sales contracted −0.6% year-on-year in May, the first negative reading since December 2022's COVID lockdowns. Fixed asset investment missed at −4.1% against a −2.0% forecast. Factories are running harder; consumers are pulling back.

🇨🇳 China's first retail contraction since the pandemic exposes a widening production-consumption split
China retail sales contracted −0.6% year-on-year in May, the first negative reading since December 2022's COVID lockdowns. Fixed asset investment missed at −4.1% against a −2.0% forecast. Factories are running harder; consumers are pulling back.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.