Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Small businesses set prices at a 2023 hiking-cycle pace while cutting investment to a 2009 low

US CPI rose +4.2% year-over-year in May, the hottest reading since April 2023, with gasoline up 40.5%. Small business price-raising plans hit a post-2023 high while capital expenditure intentions fell to a 2009 low, the micro-level stagflation fingerprint heading into next week's Fed meeting.

🇺🇸 Small businesses set prices at a 2023 hiking-cycle pace while cutting investment to a 2009 low
US CPI rose +4.2% year-over-year in May, the hottest reading since April 2023, with gasoline up 40.5%. Small business price-raising plans hit a post-2023 high while capital expenditure intentions fell to a 2009 low, the micro-level stagflation fingerprint heading into next week's Fed meeting.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 ECB hikes back to 2.25% as staff projections put inflation above target through 2027

The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.25% at its June 2026 meeting. Staff projections now put HICP at 3.0% this year and 2.3% in 2027; the 2.0% target doesn't return until 2028.

🇪🇺 ECB hikes back to 2.25% as staff projections put inflation above target through 2027
The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.25% at its June 2026 meeting. Staff projections now put HICP at 3.0% this year and 2.3% in 2027; the 2.0% target doesn't return until 2028.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK housing has erased all of 2024's recovery as gilt yields anchor mortgage costs beyond the Bank Rate's reach

RICS May house price balance held at −35%, missing the −31% consensus and fully reversing 2024's recovery. Gilt yields at 4.42% are anchoring mortgage costs that Bank Rate cuts cannot shift.

🇬🇧 UK housing has erased all of 2024's recovery as gilt yields anchor mortgage costs beyond the Bank Rate's reach
RICS May house price balance held at −35%, missing the −31% consensus and fully reversing 2024's recovery. Gilt yields at 4.42% are anchoring mortgage costs that Bank Rate cuts cannot shift.
Macro Soup

🌏 Seven weeks after Hormuz, Thursday's CPI prints put EM easing cycles to the test

South Korea's May CPI jumped to 3.1% from 2.6%; India and Indonesia report Thursday. That's the first hard data on Hormuz oil pass-through. Brazil's COPOM meets June 16-17 priced at 80% for a third straight cut, with its own inflation forecast at 4.6% against a 3.0% target.

🌏 Seven weeks after Hormuz, Thursday's CPI prints put EM easing cycles to the test
South Korea's May CPI jumped to 3.1% from 2.6%; India and Indonesia report Thursday. That's the first hard data on Hormuz oil pass-through. Brazil's COPOM meets June 16-17 priced at 80% for a third straight cut, with its own inflation forecast at 4.6% against a 3.0% target.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's PPI at a near four-year high while the consumer economy goes the other way

China's PPI hit a near four-year high of 3.9% year-on-year in May, pushed by energy costs and AI-linked metals demand. Consumer prices came in at 1.2%, a tenth below consensus, widening the gap that People's Bank of China easing has so far failed to close.

🇨🇳 China's PPI at a near four-year high while the consumer economy goes the other way
China's PPI hit a near four-year high of 3.9% year-on-year in May, pushed by energy costs and AI-linked metals demand. Consumer prices came in at 1.2%, a tenth below consensus, widening the gap that People's Bank of China easing has so far failed to close.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.