Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Consumers called the Iran shock transitory. Wednesday's CPI is the verdict.

The New York Fed's May consumer survey put 1-year inflation at 3.2%, down 0.4 percentage points despite Brent crude near $118/barrel. Wednesday's CPI print will show whether households read the Iran oil shock right.

🇺🇸 Consumers called the Iran shock transitory. Wednesday's CPI is the verdict.
The New York Fed's May consumer survey put 1-year inflation at 3.2%, down 0.4 percentage points despite Brent crude near $118/barrel. Wednesday's CPI print will show whether households read the Iran oil shock right.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 German factory orders miss hard while investor expectations post their sharpest monthly jump

German factory orders fell −3.8% in April, nearly double the −2.2% consensus and all of March's gain reversed in one print. The Sentix Expectations sub-index jumped from −11.3 to −6.5, its sharpest monthly move of the year, with the ECB's June 11 decision three days out.

🇪🇺 German factory orders miss hard while investor expectations post their sharpest monthly jump
German factory orders fell −3.8% in April, nearly double the −2.2% consensus and all of March's gain reversed in one print. The Sentix Expectations sub-index jumped from −11.3 to −6.5, its sharpest monthly move of the year, with the ECB's June 11 decision three days out.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 May retail bounce hands the BoE cover to hold as UK vacancies fall to 2014 lows

UK retail posted its strongest year-on-year reading in over a year, per the BRC, while ONS vacancies fell to 705,000, the lowest since 2014. The Bank of England is expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on June 18. The labour market has no such reprieve.

🇬🇧 May retail bounce hands the BoE cover to hold as UK vacancies fall to 2014 lows
UK retail posted its strongest year-on-year reading in over a year, per the BRC, while ONS vacancies fell to 705,000, the lowest since 2014. The Bank of England is expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on June 18. The labour market has no such reprieve.
Macro Soup

🌏 Taiwan and South Korea own half of MSCI EM and nearly all of its Hormuz risk

Taiwan (24.84%) and South Korea (23.05%) now make up nearly half of MSCI EM, and both source the bulk of their primary energy via the Strait of Hormuz. S&P Global models Brent at $100/bbl, with EM inflation running 50-150 basis points above prior baseline if the strait is disrupted.

🌏 Taiwan and South Korea own half of MSCI EM and nearly all of its Hormuz risk
Taiwan (24.84%) and South Korea (23.05%) now make up nearly half of MSCI EM, and both source the bulk of their primary energy via the Strait of Hormuz. S&P Global models Brent at $100/bbl, with EM inflation running 50-150 basis points above prior baseline if the strait is disrupted.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's FX reserves hit $3.44tn, an 11-year high built on exports, not domestic demand

China's foreign exchange reserves rose to $3.44tn in May, an 11-year high. The PBOC has now bought gold for 19 consecutive months, with the gold tranche at 7.2% of total reserves.

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.