Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 May payrolls beat, but the revisions erased the soft-landing story

May nonfarm payrolls came in at +172,000 against a +85,000 consensus, but the real story is a combined +93,000 upward revision to March and April. Three-month average now sits at +188,000, erasing the soft-landing deceleration narrative that anchored Fed patience arguments heading into Warsh's...

🇺🇸 May payrolls beat, but the revisions erased the soft-landing story
May nonfarm payrolls came in at +172,000 against a +85,000 consensus, but the real story is a combined +93,000 upward revision to March and April. Three-month average now sits at +188,000, erasing the soft-landing deceleration narrative that anchored Fed patience arguments heading into Warsh's...
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Eurozone inflation is back at 3.2% and services stagflation is the part the ECB cannot simply hike away

Eurozone HICP rose to 3.2% in May, the highest since September 2023. Services inflation hit 3.5% even as the sector contracted, a cost-push stagflation configuration the ECB's June 11 hike cannot resolve.

🇪🇺 Eurozone inflation is back at 3.2% and services stagflation is the part the ECB cannot simply hike away
Eurozone HICP rose to 3.2% in May, the highest since September 2023. Services inflation hit 3.5% even as the sector contracted, a cost-push stagflation configuration the ECB's June 11 hike cannot resolve.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK corporate price expectations hit a 15-month high, and July's Ofgem cap reset hasn't landed yet

UK year-ahead own-price expectations hit 4.0% in the May Decision Maker Panel survey, a 15-month high. The fieldwork closed before July's 13% Ofgem cap reset lands, making the pre-shock timing the key read.

🇬🇧 UK corporate price expectations hit a 15-month high, and July's Ofgem cap reset hasn't landed yet
UK year-ahead own-price expectations hit 4.0% in the May Decision Maker Panel survey, a 15-month high. The fieldwork closed before July's 13% Ofgem cap reset lands, making the pre-shock timing the key read.
Macro Soup

🌏 India grew 7.7% in FY26, but the RBI's own forecasts tell a harder FY27 story

India's economy expanded 7.7% in FY26, the fastest pace in two years, but the RBI held its repo rate at 5.25% on June 5 and cut its FY27 growth forecast to 6.6%. A projected inflation peak of 5.9% in Q3 FY27 removes the case for further easing.

🌏 India grew 7.7% in FY26, but the RBI's own forecasts tell a harder FY27 story
India's economy expanded 7.7% in FY26, the fastest pace in two years, but the RBI held its repo rate at 5.25% on June 5 and cut its FY27 growth forecast to 6.6%. A projected inflation peak of 5.9% in Q3 FY27 removes the case for further easing.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's split-survey PMI exposes a domestic demand failure the PBOC is trying to work around

China's May Caixin services PMI hit 54.4, a three-year high, while NBS manufacturing new orders printed 49.9, in outright contraction. The PBOC's answer: drain 682.7bn yuan in net liquidity this week to force bank lending rather than cut rates further.

🇨🇳 China's split-survey PMI exposes a domestic demand failure the PBOC is trying to work around
China's May Caixin services PMI hit 54.4, a three-year high, while NBS manufacturing new orders printed 49.9, in outright contraction. The PBOC's answer: drain 682.7bn yuan in net liquidity this week to force bank lending rather than cut rates further.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.