Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Claims came in clean. The FOMC behind them did not.

Claims came in at 200,000 for the week ending May 2, under the 206,000 forecast, but the FOMC's four-way dissent split was the most divided vote since 1992, and a Q1 productivity miss of +0.8% vs. +1.1% forecast means the rate path is anything but settled.

🇺🇸 Claims came in clean. The FOMC behind them did not.
Claims came in at 200,000 for the week ending May 2, under the 206,000 forecast, but the FOMC's four-way dissent split was the most divided vote since 1992, and a Q1 productivity miss of +0.8% vs. +1.1% forecast means the rate path is anything but settled.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Germany's factory orders beat is real. So is the construction collapse underneath it.

German factory orders surged 5.0% m/m in March, beating the 1.0% consensus, but defense front-loading masked a 4.1% Q1 contraction. Germany's construction PMI collapsed from 48.0 to 42.1 in April, keeping the ECB's June cut firmly in play.

🇪🇺 Germany's factory orders beat is real. So is the construction collapse underneath it.
German factory orders surged 5.0% m/m in March, beating the 1.0% consensus, but defense front-loading masked a 4.1% Q1 contraction. Germany's construction PMI collapsed from 48.0 to 42.1 in April, keeping the ECB's June cut firmly in play.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK construction hits a five-year low in April, and the cost surge is beyond what rate cuts can fix

UK Construction PMI fell to 39.7 in April, far below the 45.8 consensus and the weakest in over five years, with input cost inflation at 81.4, the second-highest in the survey's history. Labour's 1.5 million homes plan is running into a cost problem that planning reform can't solve.

🇬🇧 UK construction hits a five-year low in April, and the cost surge is beyond what rate cuts can fix
UK Construction PMI fell to 39.7 in April, far below the 45.8 consensus and the weakest in over five years, with input cost inflation at 81.4, the second-highest in the survey's history. Labour's 1.5 million homes plan is running into a cost problem that planning reform can't solve.
Macro Soup

🌍 Brazil's industrial output is booming. Its domestic manufacturers have been contracting for nearly a year.

Brazil industrial output rose 4.3% year-on-year in March, beating forecasts of 3.5%. Manufacturing PMI held at 49.0 for an eleventh straight month below 50. Two different industrial economies; only one is in the headline.

🌍 Brazil's industrial output is booming. Its domestic manufacturers have been contracting for nearly a year.
Brazil industrial output rose 4.3% year-on-year in March, beating forecasts of 3.5%. Manufacturing PMI held at 49.0 for an eleventh straight month below 50. Two different industrial economies; only one is in the headline.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's FX reserves hit $3.411 trillion in April, but the dollar's weakness did most of the work

China's FX reserves rose to $3.411 trillion in April, up $69 billion MoM. A weaker dollar likely drove much of that gain through valuation effects. Upcoming trade data will determine whether the build reflects real export resilience or accounting arithmetic.

🇨🇳 China's FX reserves hit $3.411 trillion in April, but the dollar's weakness did most of the work
China's FX reserves rose to $3.411 trillion in April, up $69 billion MoM. A weaker dollar likely drove much of that gain through valuation effects. Upcoming trade data will determine whether the build reflects real export resilience or accounting arithmetic.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.