Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 ADP's April miss isn't the worry. The mid-market hiring squeeze is.

Private payrolls came in at 109,000 in April per ADP, missing the 118,000 consensus, as mid-market firms pull back on hiring. JOLTS hires hit a two-year high at 5.55M. Friday's NFP will settle which signal is right.

🇺🇸 ADP's April miss isn't the worry. The mid-market hiring squeeze is.
Private payrolls came in at 109,000 in April per ADP, missing the 118,000 consensus, as mid-market firms pull back on hiring. JOLTS hires hit a two-year high at 5.55M. Friday's NFP will settle which signal is right.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 The stagflation trap the ECB spent two years escaping is back

Eurozone Services PMI fell to 47.6 in April, one of the sharpest single-month drops since 2022, while PPI surged 3.4% MoM on an 11.1% energy spike. Germany's index dropped to 46.9. Next week's CPI flash is the first test of whether that cost shock is passing through.

🇪🇺 The stagflation trap the ECB spent two years escaping is back
Eurozone Services PMI fell to 47.6 in April, one of the sharpest single-month drops since 2022, while PPI surged 3.4% MoM on an 11.1% energy spike. Germany's index dropped to 46.9. Next week's CPI flash is the first test of whether that cost shock is passing through.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK services snapped back to 52.7 in April. The inflation underneath is the BoE's problem.

UK Services PMI hit 52.7 in April (flash: 52.0, March: 50.5), lifting the Composite to 52.6. Input cost inflation ran at its fastest since November 2022, and markets have trimmed BoE cut expectations to 49bps through year-end.

🇬🇧 UK services snapped back to 52.7 in April. The inflation underneath is the BoE's problem.
UK Services PMI hit 52.7 in April (flash: 52.0, March: 50.5), lifting the Composite to 52.6. Input cost inflation ran at its fastest since November 2022, and markets have trimmed BoE cut expectations to 49bps through year-end.
Macro Soup

🌍 The April EM PMI rebound has a front-loading problem

Brazil's Services PMI climbed to 52.3 in April and South Africa's Manufacturing PMI jumped 3.6 points to 52.6. Purchasing price indices in both economies point to front-loading, not demand, with BCB and SARB both too constrained to deliver the rate relief that would make these numbers stick.

🌍 The April EM PMI rebound has a front-loading problem
Brazil's Services PMI climbed to 52.3 in April and South Africa's Manufacturing PMI jumped 3.6 points to 52.6. Purchasing price indices in both economies point to front-loading, not demand, with BCB and SARB both too constrained to deliver the rate relief that would make these numbers stick.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 Hong Kong's retail streak has reached 11 months, and both the volume data and PBoC's timing suggest the underlying demand is softer than it looks

Hong Kong retail grew 12.8% year-on-year in March 2026, slowing from February's 19.3% as base effects faded. The PBoC followed with a 10bps repo rate cut to 1.4% and a 50bps RRR reduction, both taking effect in May.

🇨🇳 Hong Kong's retail streak has reached 11 months, and both the volume data and PBoC's timing suggest the underlying demand is softer than it looks
Hong Kong retail grew 12.8% year-on-year in March 2026, slowing from February's 19.3% as base effects faded. The PBoC followed with a 10bps repo rate cut to 1.4% and a 50bps RRR reduction, both taking effect in May.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.