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🌏 Copom's pause is forced, not chosen, while Korea and Indonesia can afford to wait
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The day in view

🌏 Copom's pause is forced, not chosen, while Korea and Indonesia can afford to wait

Macro Soup Newsroom Macro Soup Newsroom November 5, 2026 4 min read
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Copom held the Selic at 13.75%, ending five straight cuts as inflation expectations rose after Lula's reelection. Korea posted a record $61.46bn current-account surplus, and Indonesia's GDP beat forecasts at 5.47%.

Line chart of Copom rate-scenario probabilities from 01/10 to 30/10; hold (dark blue) jumps after 23/10 while a 2% hike (light blue) falls.
Rate options had already all but locked in a Copom hold at 13.75% before Wednesday's unanimous pause after five 25bp cuts. Source
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Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) voted unanimously on Wednesday to hold the Selic, its benchmark policy rate, at 13.75%, ending five straight 25 basis point cuts that began in March. The statement dropped its earlier language on further cuts and described inflation risks as tilted to the upside. Copom's own projections moved the same way: 5.6% for 2026 (from 5.2% in September) and 4.7% for 2027 (from 3.9%). Both are above the 4.5% ceiling of the 3% target band.

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