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πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China's reflation signal is real. The recovery it implies isn't.

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China's reflation signal is real. The recovery it implies isn't.

China's March data looks bullish: PPI turned positive for the first time in 40 months, imports surged 27.8% year-on-year, and FX reserves rebounded $68.4bn. Each signal has a flaw: cost-push inflation, tariff frontloading, and valuation effects masking weak domestic demand.

Screenshot of two S&P Global/Ratingdog data releases for April: Services PMI actual 52.6 and Composite PMI actual 53.1.
S&P Global/RatingDog data shows China’s services PMI rising to 52.6 in April, beating expectations and indicating stronger momentum in non-manufacturing sectors than the official NBS figures. Source

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