China's September exports rose 36.3% and the trade surplus hit $133.53bn, but chip export volumes grew just 1% while values jumped 136%. With producer prices up 5.0%, Monday's third-quarter GDP deflator could turn positive after more than two years below zero.
CFR’s Brad Setser notes that, even after treating the chip-price shock as roughly surplus-neutral for China, the 12-month goods surplus excluding gold is close to $1.5 trillion. Source
September's trade data reads like a volume story until you open it up. Exports rose 36.3% on the year to $447.18bn against a forecast near 25.5%, and the monthly surplus widened to $133.53bn, a 20-month high by ING's count. Then the chips. Integrated-circuit exports jumped 136% in value to $44.95bn, but unit volume rose just 1% to 32.7 billion. That implies unit prices up roughly 134%. It is a memory and AI-hardware price cycle, not a surge in Chinese output.
