Lula won Brazil's runoff with 51.79%, and the dollar jumped 12.2% to R$5.58 against the real as investors unwound bets on a Bolsonaro win. Ibovespa futures dropped 16.5%, and a November rate cut is now in doubt.
Lula is due to start a fourth term on 5 January 2027 after becoming the first candidate since the return of direct elections to win from second place in the first round, as the real sold off overnight. Source
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took Sunday's runoff with 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a margin of about 4.4 million ballots, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). By Monday morning the spot dollar was at R$5.5844, up 12.2% from Friday's R$4.9773 close, after touching R$5.6056. This is less a repricing of Lula's policies than the unwind of a trade built for the opposite result.
