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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ A hot payrolls beat and $100 oil have boxed the Fed in before CPI

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ A hot payrolls beat and $100 oil have boxed the Fed in before CPI

US payrolls rose 162,000 in August against a 55,000 forecast, and markets are now pricing much higher odds of a Fed rate hike this month, just as oil prices topped $100 a barrel ahead of Friday's inflation data.

BLS August 2026 Employment Situation release with unemployment line chart and nonfarm payroll monthly-change bar chart.
EndGame Macro argues August’s 162,000 payroll beat was largely seasonal: food services lost workers on a raw basis but printed +59,000 after adjustment, a pattern that can overstate hiring if summer staffing never rebuilt. Source

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