Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Waller says Fed hikes need not come back to back, and claims under 200,000 give him cover

Waller says further Fed hikes need not come at consecutive meetings, which tilts the odds toward December. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 and core personal consumption expenditures inflation held at 3.0%.

🇺🇸 Waller says Fed hikes need not come back to back, and claims under 200,000 give him cover
Waller says further Fed hikes need not come at consecutive meetings, which tilts the odds toward December. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 and core personal consumption expenditures inflation held at 3.0%.
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🇪🇺 Berlin lifts its growth forecast to 1.3%, and Lane says the fiscal tailwind turns into a headwind

Germany raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from 0.5%, but August exports fell 0.8% and ECB chief economist Philip Lane warned that fiscal support turns into a headwind in 2027 and 2028. The ECB's 2.50% deposit rate faces a December test.

🇪🇺 Berlin lifts its growth forecast to 1.3%, and Lane says the fiscal tailwind turns into a headwind
Germany raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from 0.5%, but August exports fell 0.8% and ECB chief economist Philip Lane warned that fiscal support turns into a headwind in 2027 and 2028. The ECB's 2.50% deposit rate faces a December test.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 Gilts are tightening for the Bank of England, and Bailey is aiming his message at the Treasury

UK 10-year gilt yields hit 5.53%, the highest since 2007, as Andrew Bailey urged credible fiscal policy ahead of the 28 October Budget. Lenders cut secured credit availability for the first time in three years, and the Bank of England is split on a November hike.

🇬🇧 Gilts are tightening for the Bank of England, and Bailey is aiming his message at the Treasury
UK 10-year gilt yields hit 5.53%, the highest since 2007, as Andrew Bailey urged credible fiscal policy ahead of the 28 October Budget. Lenders cut secured credit availability for the first time in three years, and the Bank of England is split on a November hike.
Macro Soup

🌏 With oil above $100, the real-rate cushion is what separates emerging-market central banks

With Brent near $104.5, real yields decide who copes. India's central bank hiked to 5.50% and is below zero in real terms on its own forecasts; Mexico's 6.50% policy rate leaves a cushion of about 3 percentage points.

🌏 With oil above $100, the real-rate cushion is what separates emerging-market central banks
With Brent near $104.5, real yields decide who copes. India's central bank hiked to 5.50% and is below zero in real terms on its own forecasts; Mexico's 6.50% policy rate leaves a cushion of about 3 percentage points.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 Beijing pumps ¥1.2tn into the system as an oil-driven inflation print looms

China's central bank added ¥1.2tn through an 89-day outright reverse repo as the Shanghai Composite fell 0.8% after the holiday. September PPI is seen near 4.8% with Brent near $104.5, which squeezes factory margins.

🇨🇳 Beijing pumps ¥1.2tn into the system as an oil-driven inflation print looms
China's central bank added ¥1.2tn through an 89-day outright reverse repo as the Shanghai Composite fell 0.8% after the holiday. September PPI is seen near 4.8% with Brent near $104.5, which squeezes factory margins.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.