With Brent near $104.5, real yields decide who copes. India's central bank hiked to 5.50% and is below zero in real terms on its own forecasts; Mexico's 6.50% policy rate leaves a cushion of about 3 percentage points.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said inflation is no longer as benign as last year after the MPC’s first hike since 2023, with household three-month inflation expectations at 9.9%. Source
Brent traded near $104.5 a barrel on 8 October and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near $92, both up more than 4% on the day on Middle East supply worries, according to market quotes. The same oil price is hitting emerging markets very differently, and what separates them is how much real yield a central bank can offer. New prints from India, Mexico, South Africa and Taiwan show the spread.
