Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 The Fed hiked in September, and the data has already moved against it

The Fed's policy committee releases minutes today from the meeting that raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%. September payrolls grew just 29,000 against a 90,000 forecast and unemployment rose to 4.2%, both revealed only after the vote.

🇺🇸 The Fed hiked in September, and the data has already moved against it
The Fed's policy committee releases minutes today from the meeting that raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%. September payrolls grew just 29,000 against a 90,000 forecast and unemployment rose to 4.2%, both revealed only after the vote.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Germany's industrial beat is a construction mirage, not a factory comeback

German industrial production jumped 2.0% in August on a construction surge, masking a 10.6% collapse in factory orders and a 5.4% drop in auto output. The European Central Bank now has to read through that noise ahead of its October 28-29 meeting.

🇪🇺 Germany's industrial beat is a construction mirage, not a factory comeback
German industrial production jumped 2.0% in August on a construction surge, masking a 10.6% collapse in factory orders and a 5.4% drop in auto output. The European Central Bank now has to read through that noise ahead of its October 28-29 meeting.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 Mann's embedded-inflation warning lands as UK growth loses steam

Catherine Mann of the Bank of England warned headline UK inflation is on track to hit roughly 4% just as pay talks and a fresh energy price-cap rise land, even as final PMI data showed composite output slip to a three-month low of 52.0.

🇬🇧 Mann's embedded-inflation warning lands as UK growth loses steam
Catherine Mann of the Bank of England warned headline UK inflation is on track to hit roughly 4% just as pay talks and a fresh energy price-cap rise land, even as final PMI data showed composite output slip to a three-month low of 52.0.
Macro Soup

🌏 RBI ends its easing cycle as Brazil's election shock fuels a record rally

India's central bank hiked 25 basis points to 5.50% and ruled out near-term cuts, unwinding all of 2025's easing in under a year. Brazil's stock market jumped 7.7% to a record after Sunday's first-round election results set off a fiscal-repricing rally.

🌏 RBI ends its easing cycle as Brazil's election shock fuels a record rally
India's central bank hiked 25 basis points to 5.50% and ruled out near-term cuts, unwinding all of 2025's easing in under a year. Brazil's stock market jumped 7.7% to a record after Sunday's first-round election results set off a fiscal-repricing rally.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's reserve miss is a dollar story. The gold buying streak is not.

China's reserves fell to $3.4003tn in September, dragged down by dollar strength after the Fed's latest hike. The PBOC's gold streak kept running: a 23rd straight month of buying, the largest monthly addition since 2023.

🇨🇳 China's reserve miss is a dollar story. The gold buying streak is not.
China's reserves fell to $3.4003tn in September, dragged down by dollar strength after the Fed's latest hike. The PBOC's gold streak kept running: a 23rd straight month of buying, the largest monthly addition since 2023.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.