The Fed's policy committee releases minutes today from the meeting that raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%. September payrolls grew just 29,000 against a 90,000 forecast and unemployment rose to 4.2%, both revealed only after the vote.
Lighthouse Macro flags a 23.9-point gap between ISM services prices paid at a June-2022 high and employment barely at 50.1, a 93rd-percentile split since 1997 last seen in 2005, 2008 and 2021-22. Source
Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) September 15-16 meeting land today, covering the unanimous vote to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since 2023. The text will lay out the committee's reasoning in its own words. Trouble is, almost everything the Fed has learned since has pointed the other way.
