Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Soft core CPI gave markets what they wanted. The PPI pipeline will take it back.

May core CPI at +0.2% month-over-month calmed the market. But PPI is running at +6.5% year-over-year, the job-switcher wage premium has collapsed to 3.7%, and the Q3 cost pipeline hasn't landed yet.

🇺🇸 Soft core CPI gave markets what they wanted. The PPI pipeline will take it back.
May core CPI at +0.2% month-over-month calmed the market. But PPI is running at +6.5% year-over-year, the job-switcher wage premium has collapsed to 3.7%, and the Q3 cost pipeline hasn't landed yet.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Lagarde rejects 'insurance hike' and writes stagflation into the ECB's official baseline

The European Central Bank raised its deposit facility rate to 2.25% on June 11, with staff projections now officially embedding 3.0% inflation and 0.8% GDP growth for 2026. Christine Lagarde's rejection of the "insurance hike" framing makes September a probable follow-up.

🇪🇺 Lagarde rejects 'insurance hike' and writes stagflation into the ECB's official baseline
The European Central Bank raised its deposit facility rate to 2.25% on June 11, with staff projections now officially embedding 3.0% inflation and 0.8% GDP growth for 2026. Christine Lagarde's rejection of the "insurance hike" framing makes September a probable follow-up.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK April GDP contracts as gilt markets push back on the BoE's terminal rate story

UK GDP contracted −0.1% in April, reversing March's +0.3% gain. A Reuters poll finds 25 economists leaning toward Bank of England hikes versus just 6 expecting cuts. A DMO auction cleared at 4.419%, 18 basis points above the prior sale; the market doesn't think the rate ceiling is in.

🇬🇧 UK April GDP contracts as gilt markets push back on the BoE's terminal rate story
UK GDP contracted −0.1% in April, reversing March's +0.3% gain. A Reuters poll finds 25 economists leaning toward Bank of England hikes versus just 6 expecting cuts. A DMO auction cleared at 4.419%, 18 basis points above the prior sale; the market doesn't think the rate ceiling is in.
Macro Soup

🌏 Bank Indonesia fires an off-cycle hike as the rupiah hits a record low

Bank Indonesia delivered an off-cycle 25 basis point hike to 5.50% as the rupiah hit a record low of 18,190 per dollar. Turkey held at 37%, India stayed on pause. The gap traces back to how much real-rate buffer each brought into the Iran shock.

🌏 Bank Indonesia fires an off-cycle hike as the rupiah hits a record low
Bank Indonesia delivered an off-cycle 25 basis point hike to 5.50% as the rupiah hit a record low of 18,190 per dollar. Turkey held at 37%, India stayed on pause. The gap traces back to how much real-rate buffer each brought into the Iran shock.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's PPI surge is the wrong kind of reflation for a demand-starved economy

May PPI hit +3.9% YoY, fastest since July 2022, on cost-push energy prices, while CPI missed at +1.2%, pushing the wedge to 2.7pp. Household credit contracted for a seventh straight month: Beijing's stimulus is reaching the supply side but not consumers.

🇨🇳 China's PPI surge is the wrong kind of reflation for a demand-starved economy
May PPI hit +3.9% YoY, fastest since July 2022, on cost-push energy prices, while CPI missed at +1.2%, pushing the wedge to 2.7pp. Household credit contracted for a seventh straight month: Beijing's stimulus is reaching the supply side but not consumers.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.