Welcome to your weekly macro roundup. This comprehensive edition covers the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets with in-depth analysis of the week's most significant economic developments and what they mean for markets ahead.

🇺🇸 Markets shrug off hawkish Fed minutes as housing cracks beneath sentiment surveys

The Fed's July minutes said a rate hike is still possible if inflation doesn't cool. Treasury yields barely moved, even as July housing starts collapsed 12.4% while builder and manufacturing sentiment surveys kept improving.

🇺🇸 Markets shrug off hawkish Fed minutes as housing cracks beneath sentiment surveys
The Fed's July minutes said a rate hike is still possible if inflation doesn't cool. Treasury yields barely moved, even as July housing starts collapsed 12.4% while builder and manufacturing sentiment surveys kept improving.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 The eurozone's inflation problem is arriving at exactly the wrong moment

Eurozone inflation climbed to 2.9% in July on a 10.0% jump in energy prices, even as GDP grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and the composite PMI hit a nine-month high of 52.1. Markets are now pricing a possible ECB rate hike at the September 10 meeting.

🇪🇺 The eurozone's inflation problem is arriving at exactly the wrong moment
Eurozone inflation climbed to 2.9% in July on a 10.0% jump in energy prices, even as GDP grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and the composite PMI hit a nine-month high of 52.1. Markets are now pricing a possible ECB rate hike at the September 10 meeting.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK inflation jumps to 2.9%, and a split Bank of England is already behind the curve

UK headline inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July from 2.6%, driven by a 13% household energy price cap reset. It exposes a Bank of England rate-setting committee that was already split three votes to six in favor of a hike weeks earlier.

🇬🇧 UK inflation jumps to 2.9%, and a split Bank of England is already behind the curve
UK headline inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July from 2.6%, driven by a 13% household energy price cap reset. It exposes a Bank of England rate-setting committee that was already split three votes to six in favor of a hike weeks earlier.
Macro Soup

🌏 Emerging-market central banks stop moving in lockstep

South Korea raised rates 25 basis points to 2.75% on July 16, its first hike since 2023. Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico held or cut instead, breaking two years of synchronized emerging-market policy moves.

🌏 Emerging-market central banks stop moving in lockstep
South Korea raised rates 25 basis points to 2.75% on July 16, its first hike since 2023. Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico held or cut instead, breaking two years of synchronized emerging-market policy moves.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China holds rates steady as property slump enters its fifth year, betting on exports to buy time

China's central bank held its one-year and five-year loan prime rates steady for a second straight meeting, even though July retail sales rose just 0.6% and property investment fell 19.2%. It's leaning instead on a 23.9% export surge that owes much to tariff front-loading.

🇨🇳 China holds rates steady as property slump enters its fifth year, betting on exports to buy time
China's central bank held its one-year and five-year loan prime rates steady for a second straight meeting, even though July retail sales rose just 0.6% and property investment fell 19.2%. It's leaning instead on a 23.9% export surge that owes much to tariff front-loading.
Macro Soup

That wraps up this week's macro roundup. We'll be back with daily updates throughout the week and another comprehensive weekly edition next time. If you know someone who would appreciate this analysis, feel free to share. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.