Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 in September, far below the 90,000 consensus, while ISM's manufacturing survey showed input costs jumping to a multi-year high on tariffs. That leaves the Fed's rate call pulled in two directions ahead of the October 14 CPI report.
Nick Timiraos says the ho-hum jobs report leaves few signs wages or unemployment are tightening in ways that would add to price pressures, keeping September CPI on October 14 as the Fed's more important checkpoint. Source
Friday's Employment Situation report was weak enough to reset the policy conversation. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 in September against a consensus near 90,000, and July and August were revised down a combined 60,000, leaving the three-month average payroll gain near 51,000. Average hourly earnings cooled to +0.1% on the month and +3.0% year over year, the softest annual wage print since May 2021.
