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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Retail sales sink 0.6% as CPI cools on cue, and the Fed's balance sheet grows anyway

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Retail sales sink 0.6% as CPI cools on cue, and the Fed's balance sheet grows anyway

Retail sales fell 0.6% in July even as headline CPI cooled to 3.4% year-over-year, a split between calm price data and weakening consumer demand. The Fed's balance sheet grew to $6.76tn despite ongoing balance-sheet runoff, a liquidity wrinkle Fed speakers face today.

Line chart of core CPI with six-month annualized, 12-month, and three-month annualized changes from 2018 to 2025.
Core CPI's 12-month rate fell to 2.5% in July on a 0.2% monthly gain, extending the gradual disinflation path Fed officials are weighing into September. Source

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